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| Why you never draft a quarterback in the first round |
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The answer is, absolutely not! Sure he's a good first QB, but not worthy of a first round pick, not even a second round pick. Especially this season as there is an abundance of quarterbacks. It's best to fill the stronger or more demanding positions first, based on your leagues scoring. Typically the running back position is the strongest as there are less quality, featured starters. They tend to be sucked dry within the first two rounds, and usually championships are won off the strength of your running game.
Unless you are in a PPR (points per reception) league, then receivers’ values go up, and they become almost as valuable as running backs. But receivers are still typically much deeper than running backs; so if you go that route early on, be sure you get the top two receivers. Feature ‘backs don’t share carries and will likely touch the ball 20+ times per game where a receiver will, on average, have just 10 passes thrown their way. And that isn’t saying they will catch all of them.
So, whenever a quarterback like Peyton Manning has a "God Like" season as he did in 2004, many people will perceive a notion that the player will repeat the performance. But the laws of football are against them. Usually, the next season, defenses will make it a point to try to shut him down. Of course, no defense will shutdown Manning 100%; so he will obviously get some good stat’s. My point is this: when a player has a "God Like" season, before you draft him the next year, look at the player’s previous 3-years average, and EXPECT those numbers. This way, if he does have another spectacular season--great for you! If he has an average season, as Manning did last year—then, you still win, because you didn't draft him too early, or over-value him, from a fantasy perspective.
I personally feel that, if Manning is there in the late 4th or early 5th round, I'd take him. If he isn't, who cares? There's Eli Manning, Marc Bulger, Tom Brady, Trent Green, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, Steve McNair (sleeper) and the list continues, with quarterbacks that can easily reach 3000+ yards, and 20+ touchdowns. These are good solid fantasy numbers in most every format.
Oh, yes; with Edgerrin James gone to Arizona, I do suspect Manning will have a much better season than last year. But don't count on a repeat of 2004. Therefore, let someone else burn a first round pick; and play it smart, by taking your value positions first!
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